Unveiling the Future of Aviation: SAF vs. e-SAF – A Bold Leap Towards Sustainable Skies

As the aviation industry confronts its considerable carbon footprint, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) have emerged as a critical pathway to decarbonization. While often discussed as a singular category, the realm of alternative aviation fuels encompasses distinct technologies with varying production methods, environmental impacts, and market trajectories. Most significantly, electro-sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF)—synthesized from captured CO₂ and renewable hydrogen—represents a small but rapidly growing segment within the broader SAF landscape. Current aviation fuel markets remain dominated by conventional jet fuel, with SAF comprising a minimal percentage primarily produced through Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology. E-SAF currently constitutes merely 2% of the already limited SAF production, yet regulatory frameworks and technological innovations are poised to dramatically reshape this distribution in coming decades. This report examines the hierarchical relationship between conventional fuels, alternative fuels, and e-fuels within aviation, with particular focus on the technological, economic, and regulatory factors that will determine their respective market shares through 2050.

The Hierarchy of Aviation Fuels

The aviation fuel landscape has evolved significantly in recent years, creating a clear hierarchical structure that helps contextualize the position and potential of different fuel types. Understanding this hierarchy is essential for grasping both the current market dynamics and future transition pathways within the aviation sector. At the top of this hierarchy sits conventional jet fuel derived from fossil sources, which continues to dominate the global aviation market due to its established production infrastructure, relatively low cost, and performance characteristics that meet stringent aviation requirements. The aviation industry’s heavy reliance on this conventional fuel represents both a challenge and opportunity for sustainable alternatives seeking market entry.

Below conventional jet fuel in the hierarchy are alternative aviation fuels, which encompass all non-conventional jet fuel options designed for aviation applications. This broad category includes various production pathways and feedstocks unified by their potential to reduce environmental impact compared to fossil-derived fuels. Alternative aviation fuels maintain compatibility with existing aircraft and infrastructure while offering varying degrees of carbon emission reductions depending on their specific production pathway. The diverse range of options within this category reflects different technological approaches to the fundamental challenge of creating high-energy-density liquid fuels suitable for aviation applications without the carbon intensity of conventional jet fuel.

graph TD
    A[Conventional Jet Fuel] --> B[Alternative Aviation Fuels]
    B --> C[Sustainable Aviation Fuels SAF]
    C --> D[Bio-derived SAF]
    C --> E[Synthetic SAF]
    D --> F[HEFA]
    D --> G[Advanced Biofuels]
    E --> H[e-SAF]
    E --> I[Other Synthetic Pathways]
    
    style H fill:#f9f,stroke:#333,stroke-width:2px

Within alternative aviation fuels, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) represent a critically important subcategory defined by their significant life-cycle carbon emission reductions compared to conventional jet fuel. These fuels must meet specific sustainability criteria related to feedstock sourcing, production methods, and overall environmental impact. SAF itself branches into two main categories: bio-derived SAF produced from biomass feedstocks, and synthetic SAF created through chemical synthesis processes. This distinction is fundamental to understanding both current market dynamics and future growth potential, as these pathways face different scaling challenges and opportunities. Bio-derived SAF currently dominates production due to relatively lower costs and greater technological maturity, but faces inherent feedstock limitations that may constrain its ultimate potential.

E-SAF occupies a specific position within the synthetic SAF branch, distinguished by its unique production pathway that utilizes renewable electricity as the primary energy input. This hierarchical positioning is crucial for understanding both the current limited market share of e-SAF and its potential for future growth. While currently representing just a small fraction of total SAF production, e-SAF’s position within this fuel hierarchy highlights its role as part of a longer transition toward increasingly sustainable aviation fuels rather than as a direct competitor to all other fuel types. The highlighted position of e-SAF in the visualization reflects its potential importance in aviation’s decarbonization strategy despite its currently minimal market presence.

Current Production Pathways for SAF

The SAF category encompasses multiple production pathways, each with distinct feedstock requirements, technological maturity, and cost implications. HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) represents the most commercially advanced SAF production pathway, accounting for approximately 85% of current global SAF production. This process converts oils and fats through hydroprocessing into a drop-in jet fuel component that meets all commercial aviation requirements. HEFA’s dominance stems from its relatively lower production costs, established supply chains, and proven technology that has achieved commercial scale. The widespread adoption of HEFA reflects its economic advantages in the near term, though concerns about feedstock availability and sustainability may limit its ultimate scaling potential.

Advanced biofuels constitute the second major category of SAF production pathways, representing roughly 13% of current SAF output. These pathways include Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ), gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and other emerging technologies utilizing non-food biomass feedstocks. These technologies offer significant potential advantages in terms of feedstock flexibility and ultimate scaling potential compared to HEFA. Advanced biofuels from pathways such as AtJ and Fischer-Tropsch convert alcohols derived from various feedstocks or synthesis gas from carbon-containing materials into aviation fuel through defined chemical processes. While these pathways offer significant potential for scaling, particularly when utilizing waste-based feedstocks such as municipal solid waste and forest residues, they currently face higher production costs than HEFA.

E-SAF represents the third and currently smallest category within the SAF production landscape, accounting for just 2% of total SAF production. E-SAF is produced through power-to-liquid processes that combine green hydrogen (produced via electrolysis powered by renewable electricity) with captured CO₂ to create synthetic hydrocarbons. The captured CO₂ can be sourced from industrial point sources, biogenic sources, or direct air capture, with each source having different implications for the fuel’s carbon intensity. Despite its currently limited market share, e-SAF offers significant long-term potential due to its minimal land use requirements, theoretically unlimited scaling potential (constrained primarily by renewable electricity availability rather than biological resources), and potentially superior lifecycle carbon reductions when produced with direct air capture and renewable electricity.

Current SAF Production Landscape

The contemporary Sustainable Aviation Fuel market, while growing rapidly, remains a small fraction of overall jet fuel consumption. Current global SAF production stands at approximately 5 million tons annually, accounting for less than 1% of total aviation fuel demand. This limited market penetration reflects both the nascent state of many SAF technologies and the significant economic challenges associated with sustainable fuel production. Despite these constraints, the SAF market is experiencing robust growth, with production increasing at approximately 30% CAGR through 2030, driven by airline sustainability commitments, government incentives, and evolving regulatory requirements. The production landscape is characterized by significant variation in technological maturity, with certain pathways achieving commercial scale while others remain at demonstration or pilot stages.

The pie chart below illustrates the distribution of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production by pathway for the years 2024-2025. The data highlights the dominance of HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) as the primary SAF production method, followed by Advanced Biofuels and e-SAF.

Key Insights

1. HEFA Dominance:
   HEFA accounts for 85% of SAF production, showcasing its maturity and scalability in the aviation industry.
2. Emerging Pathways:
   Advanced Biofuels represent 13% of production, highlighting ongoing innovation in biofuel technologies.
3. Future Potential of e-SAF:
   e-SAF currently holds only 2% of production, but its reliance on renewable energy positions it as a promising pathway for long-term sustainability.

pie title Current SAF Production by Pathway (2024-2025)
    "HEFA" : 85
    "Advanced Biofuels" : 13
    "e-SAF" : 2

HEFA-derived SAF dominates current production, accounting for approximately 85% of global SAF output. This dominance stems primarily from the relative maturity of HEFA technology, which has been commercially deployed across multiple facilities globally. HEFA production utilizes vegetable oils, waste fats, and other lipid feedstocks, processing them through hydrogenation, deoxygenation, and isomerization to create a drop-in jet fuel component. The relative cost-effectiveness of HEFA compared to other SAF pathways has established it as the near-term solution of choice, though concerns about feedstock availability may limit its ultimate scaling potential. While HEFA currently offers the most economical pathway to SAF production, its reliance on limited lipid feedstocks creates a ceiling on its ultimate production potential, with most analyses suggesting HEFA alone cannot satisfy projected SAF demand beyond 2035.

Advanced biofuels represent the second-largest segment of current SAF production at approximately 13% of total output. This category encompasses multiple technological pathways, including alcohol-to-jet, gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and other processes utilizing a diverse range of feedstocks from agricultural residues to energy crops and municipal solid waste. Advanced biofuels offer significant advantages in terms of feedstock flexibility and ultimate scaling potential compared to HEFA, though at generally higher production costs in the near term. The cost differential is substantial, with advanced biofuels ranging from 65 to 158 EUR/MWh for biomass feedstocks and 48 to 104 EUR/MWh for waste-based production, compared to conventional jet fuel. The economic challenge has limited commercial deployment to date, though multiple demonstration-scale facilities are operational with several commercial plants under construction globally.

Understanding e-SAF Production

The production of e-SAF represents one of the most technologically sophisticated approaches to sustainable aviation fuel, involving multiple complex processes that convert renewable electricity into liquid hydrocarbon fuel suitable for jet engines. At its core, e-SAF production comprises three fundamental steps: renewable hydrogen production via electrolysis, carbon dioxide capture, and fuel synthesis through processes like Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-based pathways. This multi-step production chain distinguishes e-SAF from bio-derived alternatives and creates both unique challenges and opportunities. The intricate nature of this production pathway contributes to e-SAF’s currently limited market share within the broader SAF landscape, while simultaneously offering pathways to potentially superior environmental performance and unlimited scaling potential unconstrained by biological feedstock limitations.

flowchart TD
    subgraph "Energy Sources"
        RE[Renewable Electricity]
    end
    
    subgraph "Hydrogen Production"
        AE[Alkaline Electrolysis]
        PEME[PEM Electrolysis]
        SOECE[SOEC Electrolysis]
    end
    
    subgraph "Carbon Sources"
        DAC[Direct Air Capture]
        BIO[Biogenic Sources]
        IND[Industrial Point Sources]
    end
    
    subgraph "Synthesis"
        FT[Fischer-Tropsch]
        MS[Methanol Synthesis]
        MTG[Methanol-to-Gasoline]
        MTJ[Methanol-to-Jet]
    end
    
    subgraph "E-Fuel Products"
        EDiesel[E-Diesel]
        EPetrol[E-Petrol/E-Gasoline]
        ESAF[E-SAF]
        EMethanol[E-Methanol]
        EAmmonia[E-Ammonia]
    end
    
    RE --> AE & PEME & SOECE
    AE & PEME & SOECE --> FT & MS
    DAC & BIO & IND --> FT & MS
    FT --> EDiesel & EPetrol & ESAF
    MS --> EMethanol
    MS --> MTG --> EPetrol
    MS --> MTJ --> ESAF
    AE & PEME & SOECE --> EAmmonia
    
    style ESAF fill:#f9f,stroke:#333,stroke-width:2px

The first step in e-SAF production involves the generation of hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity. This process splits water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen using specialized equipment called electrolyzers. Three main electrolyzer technologies—alkaline, proton exchange membrane (PEM), and solid oxide (SOEC)—compete in this space, each with distinct advantages and challenges. Alkaline electrolyzers represent the most mature and currently cost-effective option, while PEM offers superior operational flexibility, and SOEC promises higher efficiency but remains at earlier stages of commercial deployment. The electrolyzer represents one of the most capital-intensive components of the e-SAF production process, with its performance directly impacting both hydrogen production costs and overall system efficiency. Current research focuses on reducing capital costs while simultaneously improving efficiency, durability, and operational flexibility, with advanced materials and coating technologies playing a central role in achieving these objectives.

The second critical step involves carbon dioxide acquisition, which can occur through various pathways with significant implications for both economics and environmental performance. Carbon can be sourced from concentrated industrial point sources such as cement plants or biofuel facilities, from biogenic sources like fermentation or biomass gasification, or directly from the atmosphere through direct air capture (DAC) technology. Each carbon source presents different cost implications, with industrial point sources offering the lowest near-term costs but potentially limited availability, and DAC representing the most expensive but infinitely scalable option. The carbon acquisition pathway significantly impacts both production economics and lifecycle carbon intensity, with direct air capture offering the most direct path to carbon-neutral or potentially carbon-negative fuels despite its higher costs. Recent innovations in carbon capture technologies are steadily reducing the energy and cost penalties associated with CO₂ extraction, particularly when integrated with industrial processes that generate concentrated carbon dioxide streams.

Economic Challenges Facing e-SAF

The economic feasibility of e-SAF production represents perhaps the most significant barrier to widespread adoption, with current production costs substantially exceeding both conventional jet fuel and other SAF pathways. Contemporary cost assessments indicate that e-SAF production costs range from $2,000-6,000 per ton, dramatically higher than fossil Jet A-1 at $600-1,110 per ton. This substantial cost premium stems from multiple factors throughout the production chain, creating a formidable economic challenge that currently limits market penetration to niche applications and regions with particularly supportive policy environments. The production economics of e-SAF are significantly influenced by renewable electricity costs, electrolyzer capital expenditure, carbon acquisition methods, and synthesis efficiency, creating a complex cost structure with multiple potential pathways to improvement.

pie
    title 🛠️ Production Cost Structure for Different E-Fuels
    "🌿 Renewable Electricity" : 40
    "⚡ Electrolyzer CAPEX" : 25
    "🌎 CO₂ Capture" : 15
    "⚙️ Synthesis & Processing" : 12
    "📋 Other OPEX" : 8

Hydrogen production costs represent the single largest contributor to e-SAF’s economic challenge, accounting for approximately 65% of total production expenses when combining renewable electricity and electrolyzer costs. The economic viability of e-fuels is inextricably linked to hydrogen production costs, with hydrogen typically representing over 85% of the total production costs for e-fuels across all product categories. This fundamental relationship makes hydrogen pricing the primary determinant of e-fuel feasibility. Current hydrogen production costs through electrolysis range from $2.5/kg in optimal locations with abundant, low-cost renewable resources to $6.5/kg in regions with higher electricity prices or less favorable renewable resources. The renewable electricity cost itself typically represents the largest single component of e-fuel production costs, accounting for approximately 40% of total production expenses, creating significant regional variations in production economics. Locations with abundant, low-cost renewable resources therefore offer substantial advantages for e-SAF production.

Carbon acquisition represents the second major cost component, particularly when utilizing direct air capture technology that offers the most environmentally beneficial but also most expensive pathway. DAC costs currently range from $250-600 per ton of CO₂ captured, adding significantly to overall production expenses when this pathway is employed. Industrial point-source carbon capture offers a more economical near-term alternative at $50-100 per ton of CO₂, though with potentially less favorable lifecycle carbon intensity depending on the specific source. The synthesis processes that convert hydrogen and carbon dioxide into finished fuel products contribute the remaining production costs, with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis representing the most common pathway for e-SAF production. These processes require specialized catalysts and reactor technologies that add to both capital and operational expenses. Recent strategic partnerships like that between INERATEC and Sasol have secured state-of-the-art Fischer-Tropsch catalysts that enhance chemical conversion efficiency, potentially improving the economics of e-SAF production through increased process yield.

Technology Readiness Assessment

The various technological components that comprise the e-SAF production pathway exhibit significantly different levels of commercial maturity, creating a complex landscape for scaling and deployment. Understanding these varying technology readiness levels (TRLs) provides critical context for assessing both current market limitations and future growth potential. Electrolysis technologies represent perhaps the most mature component of the e-SAF production chain, though with significant variations between specific approaches. Alkaline electrolysis has achieved commercial maturity (TRL 9) with multiple large-scale deployments globally, while PEM electrolysis has reached early commercial deployment (TRL 8) but continues to face challenges related to cost and durability. Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) remain at earlier stages (TRL 6), offering potentially superior efficiency but requiring further development for commercial viability in e-SAF applications.

gantt
    title 🚀 Technology Readiness Levels of E-Fuel Components (TRL)
    dateFormat DD
    axisFormat TRL%d
    tickInterval 1day

    %% Start date chosen arbitrarily as 2025-01-01
    %% Each TRL level represented as one day for clarity

    section 💧 Hydrogen Production
    ✅ Alkaline Electrolysis      :done, 2025-01-01, 8d
    ✅ PEM Electrolysis           :done, 2025-01-01, 7d
    🚧 SOEC Electrolysis          :active, 2025-01-01, 5d

    section 🌎 Carbon Capture
    ✅ Industrial Point Sources   :done, 2025-01-01, 8d
    ✅ Biogenic CO₂ Capture       :done, 2025-01-01, 7d
    🚧 Direct Air Capture         :active, 2025-01-01, 5d

    section ⚙️ Synthesis Processes
    ✅ Methanol Synthesis         :done, 2025-01-01, 8d
    ✅ Fischer-Tropsch            :done, 2025-01-01, 7d
    🚧 MTG/MTJ Processing         :active, 2025-01-01, 6d

    section 🔄 Integration Pathways
    ✅ Methanol Pathway           :done, 2025-01-01, 7d
    🚧 FT Pathway                 :active, 2025-01-01, 6d
    🚧 End-to-End e-SAF           :crit, active, 2025-01-01, 5d
    

Carbon capture technologies similarly span a wide range of technology readiness levels depending on the specific approach. Industrial point-source carbon capture has achieved commercial maturity (TRL 9) with multiple large-scale deployments in industries like natural gas processing and fertilizer production. Biogenic carbon capture from sources like fermentation CO₂ has likewise achieved commercial deployment (TRL 8) in applications such as ethanol production. Direct air capture technology, however, remains at earlier stages of development (TRL 6-7), with several demonstration facilities operational but significant challenges remaining for large-scale commercial deployment. This technology readiness differential creates a tension between near-term economic viability (favoring industrial point-source carbon) and ultimate environmental performance and scalability (favoring direct air capture). The disparity in technological maturity contributes to the significant cost differentials currently observed between different e-fuel production routes.

Synthesis processes represent the final major technological component of the e-SAF production pathway, with varying levels of commercial maturity. Methanol synthesis has achieved commercial maturity (TRL 9) through decades of deployment in the chemical industry, while Fischer-Tropsch synthesis has reached early commercial deployment (TRL 8) but continues to face challenges related to catalyst performance and process optimization in specifically e-fuel applications. The conversion of these intermediate products (methanol or Fischer-Tropsch waxes) into aviation-specific fuel cuts requires additional processing steps that add complexity and cost. The integration of these various technologies into complete end-to-end e-SAF production systems remains at relatively early stages (TRL 6-7), with only a limited number of demonstration facilities operational globally. This integration challenge is particularly relevant for e-SAF, which requires precise fuel specifications to meet stringent aviation requirements.

Regulatory Environment Driving Future Growth

The regulatory landscape surrounding sustainable aviation fuels has emerged as a primary driver for market development, particularly for e-SAF adoption despite its current cost premium. Policymakers globally are implementing increasingly ambitious frameworks to accelerate aviation decarbonization, creating both mandates and incentives that are reshaping market dynamics. The European Union has established itself as the leader in this regulatory push through multiple interconnected policies that collectively create strong demand signals for SAF broadly and e-SAF specifically. The EU’s Fit for 55 package includes the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which implements SAF blending mandates starting with 2% in 2025 and gradually increasing to 70% by 2050, with specific sub-mandates for synthetic aviation fuels. This regulatory approach provides market certainty that is essential for stimulating investment in e-SAF production capacity despite its currently challenging economics.

Carbon pricing mechanisms represent one of the most powerful policy tools for improving e-SAF competitiveness by internalizing the environmental costs of fossil fuels. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) already imposes a carbon price on fossil fuel emissions, compelling industries to consider cleaner fuel options. These mechanisms are gradually narrowing the cost gap between conventional fuels and sustainable alternatives by reflecting the true environmental cost of fossil fuel use. As carbon pricing systems mature and expand globally, they will create increasingly favorable economic conditions for e-SAF adoption. The impact of carbon pricing is particularly significant for aviation due to the sector’s limited decarbonization alternatives compared to ground transportation, which has multiple viable pathways including electrification and hydrogen fuel cells. This relative lack of alternatives increases the importance of liquid fuel solutions like e-SAF for aviation decarbonization.

Direct subsidy mechanisms also play a critical role in supporting early-stage market development for e-SAF. In the United States, the 45Z tax credit established under the Inflation Reduction Act provides significant financial incentives for e-fuel production, helping bridge the substantial cost gap between e-fuels and conventional alternatives. European support mechanisms include both national-level programs and EU-wide initiatives like the European Hydrogen Bank auctions, which accelerate e-fuel uptake and production across the continent. These financial support mechanisms are essential for enabling initial market development and first-of-kind commercial facilities that can demonstrate technological viability and begin the process of cost reduction through learning and scale. Research indicates that strategic use of policy instruments to create initial market demand can help drive the production scale increases necessary for long-term cost competitiveness.

Market Outlook and Growth Perspectives

The market for e-fuels broadly, and e-SAF specifically, presents one of the most dynamic growth opportunities within the energy transition landscape. Current global e-fuel market size estimates for 2025 range from USD 6.2 billion to USD 173.72 billion, reflecting both the early stage of market development and methodological differences in market assessment1. Despite this variation, all analyses indicate remarkable growth potential, with projections for 2032-2034 ranging from USD 48.5 billion to USD 733.81 billion, representing compound annual growth rates between 17.41% and 34.5%. This extraordinary growth trajectory, though starting from a small base, reflects both the critical role these fuels will play in hard-to-abate sectors and the increasingly supportive policy environment, particularly in Europe. The e-SAF segment, while currently representing a small fraction of this broader market, is poised for similar or even accelerated growth due to the aviation sector’s limited decarbonization alternatives and increasingly stringent regulatory requirements.

graph LR
    subgraph "Current: 2024-2025"
        A[HEFA: 85%] --> B[Advanced Biofuels: 13%] --> C[e-SAF: 2%]
    end
    
    subgraph "MedTerm:2030-2035"
        
        D[HEFA: 65%] --> E[Advanced Biofuels: 25%] --> F[e-SAF: 10%]
    end
    
    subgraph "Long Term: 2040-2050"
        G[HEFA: 30%] --> H[Advanced Biofuels: 30%] --> I[e-SAF: 40%]
    end
    
    C -.-> F -.-> I

Regional market dynamics reveal significant variations in e-fuel and e-SAF development across major economies. Europe has established itself as the dominant regional market, with a market size surpassing USD 81.65 billion in 2025 and projected growth at a CAGR of 17.53% through 2034. This European leadership stems from the continent’s ambitious climate policies, substantial investments in renewable energy infrastructure, and strong political support for sustainable fuel development. The United States presents distinct advantages for e-fuel production, particularly in the Midwest region where synergies between CO₂ waste from ethanol plants and surplus renewable electricity create favorable production economics. Research indicates that when e-fuels are produced in these optimal locations with dynamic, supply-driven electricity markets, their costs could be reduced by up to 50% compared to mainstream estimates, potentially positioning American e-fuels as globally competitive options. The United Kingdom similarly demonstrates significant growth potential, with its e-fuel market projected to grow at a CAGR of 23.65% from 2023 to 2033.

The projected evolution of SAF composition illustrates the anticipated growth in e-SAF’s market share over time, driven by several key factors: declining production costs through technological learning and scale effects, increasing carbon pricing that improves relative economics, expanding renewable electricity availability, and strengthening regulatory mandates specifically targeting synthetic fuels. This transition is further supported by the inherent scalability limitations of HEFA, which is constrained by feedstock availability, creating a natural ceiling on its ultimate market share. While e-SAF currently represents just 2% of SAF production, its share is projected to increase to approximately 10% by 2030-2035, and potentially reach 40% or more by 2040-2050 as production scales and costs decline. This dramatic shift in market composition reflects both the superior long-term potential of e-SAF for complete aviation decarbonization and the expected economic improvements as the technology matures and achieves greater scale.

Conclusion

The distinction between SAF and e-SAF represents a critical differentiation in understanding the future trajectory of sustainable aviation fuels. While both offer significant environmental benefits compared to conventional jet fuel, they differ fundamentally in production methods, feedstock requirements, scale limitations, and current economic viability. SAF encompasses a broad category of sustainable aviation fuels, with HEFA currently dominating production due to its relatively lower costs and established technology. E-SAF, though presently representing only a small fraction of total SAF production, offers unique advantages in terms of scalability and potentially superior lifecycle emissions reductions, positioning it as an increasingly important component of long-term aviation decarbonization strategies.

The hierarchical relationship between conventional fuels, alternative fuels, and e-fuels provides an essential framework for understanding market dynamics and transition pathways in aviation. This progression reflects not only environmental performance improvements but also increasing technological sophistication, with each step offering greater decarbonization potential but often at higher production costs. The current dominance of HEFA and advanced biofuels in the SAF landscape is expected to persist for the next 10-20 years due to their cost advantages and technological maturity, with e-SAF gradually gaining market share as technology improves and costs decline. This transition will be significantly influenced by regulatory frameworks that increasingly recognize the unique advantages of e-SAF and provide specific support mechanisms to accelerate its development despite current cost premiums.

The e-fuel market broadly, and e-SAF specifically, presents one of the most dynamic growth opportunities in the energy transition landscape, with projected expansion from approximately $6.2 billion in 2023 to potentially $733.81 billion by 2034. This extraordinary growth trajectory, though starting from a small base, reflects both the critical role these fuels will play in hard-to-abate sectors and the increasingly supportive policy environment, particularly in Europe. As renewable electricity becomes more abundant and affordable, electrolyzer costs continue to decline, and carbon capture technologies improve, the production economics for e-SAF will progressively enhance, gradually narrowing the cost gap with other aviation fuel options. While significant challenges remain in scaling production capacity to meet anticipated demand, the fundamental direction of travel appears increasingly clear: e-SAF will transition from a niche solution today to a mainstream component of the aviation fuel mix in the coming decades, driven by its unique potential to deliver truly sustainable air transportation in a carbon-constrained world.